Quarterly Summary
The close of 4Q 2023 marked the end of a broadly positive year in onshore drilling activity globally. Overall, in the whole of 2023, an increase in the number of wells drilled compared to 2022 was recorded in many countries, with Argentina (a 21% increase on 2022 wells drilled), India (11%) and Indonesia (12%) all among those to record better activity levels. The story was not positive everywhere, with the US seeing a 9% contraction in wells drilled from 2022, as operators reacted to lower natural gas pricing by reducing drilling activity.
Wells Drilled 2022 vs 2023
Source: Westwood World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2023-2027
Oil prices fell from an average of US$87/bbl in 3Q 2023 to US$84 in 4Q 2023, reflecting abundant supply from non-OPEC sources coupled with stagnant or limited expectations for demand. As a result, the OPEC+ group announced plans to deepen cuts in 2024, with countries such as Algeria, Kuwait and the UAE joining Russia and Saudi Arabia in voluntarily reducing production below already agreed-upon levels. These voluntary cuts will total 2.2mmbbld, adding to the cut of around 3.7mmbbl/d already agreed for 2024. This should support oil prices in 2024, ensuring that drilling activity remains relatively robust.
There were significant M&A deals in 4Q 2023, particularly in North America. The most financially significant deals were announced in October 2023, when ExxonMobil and Chevron announced the acquisitions of Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corporation respectively, in deals worth a combined US$119bn. These two deals help increase both supermajor’s acreage in key shale basins, especially in the Permian, underlining the continued importance and value of acreage in the US’ more prolific shale play.
Westwood also published its World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2023-2027, which estimated an average rig demand of 4,559 rigs in 2023. There is a broadly positive outlook globally, with 4,689 rigs expected to be drilling on average in 2024, increasing to 4,759 by 2027.
Global Drilling Rig Demand by Region 2023-2027
Source: Westwood World Land Drilling Rig Market Forecast 2023-2027
Ben Wilby
Senior Analyst, Onshore Energy Services
[email protected]
Deborah Yamba
Research Analyst, Onshore Energy Services
[email protected]
