High impact exploration in 2025 is expected to remain stable, with QatarEnergy being the most active explorer and all eyes remaining on the Orange Basin
Westwood forecasts high impact exploration drilling will remain stable in 2025, with 65-75 wells expected to complete, compared to the 69 completed in 2024. As of the end of January, seven high impact wells have completed, 22 wells are drilling, 20 firm wells have been identified and an additional 23 wells are classed as probable.
Figure 1: Left – High impact exploration activity and projection for 2025 and Right – split by play maturity. Source: Westwood Wildcat
21 frontier wells are expected in 2025, a small increase on the 19 wells in 2024. 11 of these 21 are targeting frontier basins, whilst new plays will be tested in the proven Sabah, Rio Muni, Western Black Sea, Suriname-Guyana and Cauvery basins. Emerging play wells are expected to account for ~30% of the high impact inventory in 2025 down from 36% in 2024. High value, >100mmboe prospects in mature and maturing plays are forecast to make up 40% of the high impact programme, an increase on last year. The Arabian, Campos, Gulf of Mexico, Kutei, Norwegian Sea, Santa Cruz and Santos basins will all have multiple high impact maturing/mature play prospects drilled.
QatarEnergy is expected to be the most active explorer in 2025, participating in 13 high impact wells. All of these are operated by supermajors apart from one well in Brazil, operated by Petrobras. Chevron will rank 2nd, participating in seven wells, although two of these have already completed as dry holes in Egypt (Khendjer) and Namibia (Kapana). Six companies are expected to drill six high impact wells in 2025, including all of the remaining supermajors.
Figure 2: Left – High impact exploration activity by region. Right – High impact exploration activity by company in 2025. Source: Westwood Wildcat
Africa should see another busy year for high impact drilling with 14 wells expected to be drilled. The newly opened Orange Basin is expected to see 7-10 wells in 2025, and these will be key to determining the ultimate potential of the basin. Key wells for the Orange Basin include Olympe-1X and Sagittarius-1X, although Chevron’s recently completed Kapana-1 came in dry. Elsewhere in Africa, Azule Energy is expected to drill the Kianda-1 well in the outboard area of the Congo Basin, Angola in 2H 2025, and there are potential high impact wells being drilled offshore in the Namibe, Rio Muni and Tano basins, as well as potential frontier onshore tests in the Cabora Bassa and Kavango basins.
High impact drilling in North America continues to decline, with only five high impact wells currently anticipated to be drilled in 2025, down from 13 completed in 2024 and 20 in 2023. Four high impact sub-salt Miocene tests are expected to complete in the US GoM, including the Far South well which is currently drilling. Daenerys is a key well to watch aiming to extend the sub-salt Miocene play. In Alaska, the Armstrong led JV is expected to drill the Sockeye-2 well in the 2024-2025 drilling season attempting to extend the Cretaceous topset play further east.
South America could see 17 high impact wells in 2025, making it the busiest region globally. The Santos and Campos basins in Brazil will see key wells at Andorinha in the Campos Basin, located south of Marlim Sul, and the Bumerangue well in the Santos, which will attempt to extend the pre-salt play further south. In Colombia, Petrobras is expected to drill the Buena Suerte well targeting assumed Miocene reservoirs over a basement high close to the multi-tcf Sirius discovery. A key well in Suriname in 2024 is Korikori, which will test a shallow water Upper Cretaceous play inboard of the prolific deep water play. Two wells are also expected in the Demerara area offshore Suriname targeting the Macaw and Araku Deep prospects.
Figure 3: Location of high impact wells in 2025, including completed, drilling and planned wells. Westwood’s 14 key wells to watch in 2025 have been highlighted. Source: Westwood Wildcat
In the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Middle East, 14 high impact wells are expected to be drilled. Previously highlighted ‘key wells to watch’ are the dry Khendjer well and the Nefertari gas discovery in the Herodotus Basin offshore Egypt. Two wells are expected offshore Cyprus in 2025, with Elektra currently drilling, testing a significant extension of the Nile Delta Miocene play and Pegasus testing the emerging Cretaceous carbonate play. Matsola offshore Libya is a key well to watch testing the offshore extension of the Sirte Basin. In the Western Black Sea, OMV Petrom will drill the Vinekh well aiming to extend the Sakarya play from Turkey into Bulgaria. Elsewhere, high impact wells will be drilled in Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and the UAE.
14 high impact wells are expected in Asia Pacific, including the Hai Su Vang-1X well which completed as a discovery in early 2025. Key frontier wells are expected offshore South Korea at Daewanggorae, as well as at Mailu offshore Papua New Guinea. Drilling will continue in the Kutei Basin offshore Indonesia, whilst the 2025 exploration programme offshore Malaysia is still to be firmed up with only the Megah high impact well currently drilling confirmed. India should see at least 5-6 high impact wells from Oil India and ONGC across the east coast and Andaman Islands basins
In Europe, eight high impact wells are expected. Two high impact wells are expected in the Barents, including the frontier ILX well Elgol which made a non-commercial gas discovery. In the UK, the Dabinett well will test an emerging Permian carbonate play in the Southern North Sea, and in Poland the frontier Wolin East-1 well is expected to complete in the coming months.
Jamie Collard, Exploration Research Manager
[email protected]
Westwood’s Global E&A team will be hosting a client only webinar on Wednesday 12 February, analysing the 2025 high impact well programme and discussing five key exploration hot-spots in more detail.
Non-subscribers to Wildcat can purchase the ‘Key Wells to Watch in 2025’ report, which includes access to the webinar. Please contact [email protected] for further details and purchasing options.
