Significant upside potential for Iranian oil & gas production
Douglas-Westwood’s (DW) NEW publication the Iran Oil & Gas Market Forecast 2015-2019 provides detailed analysis of key markets within Iran’s oil & gas sector, including historical and forecast drilling and production, oilfield services expenditure, onshore and offshore rig demand, fixed platforms, onshore pipelines and downstream facilities (refineries, gas processing, petrochemicals and LNG).
Author, Katy Smith, commented, “Highlights include a forecast 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in onshore oilfield services spend (to reach $2.3 billion in 2019), a 6% CAGR in the active onshore rig fleet and a 6% CAGR in gas processing Capex (to reach $6.6 billion in 2019).
“The anticipated lifting of the international sanctions poses significant upside potential for Iran’s oil & gas production, with the country having set ambitious targets for increasing its output in the coming years. Analysis in the report includes historical and forecast onshore and offshore oil & gas production over 2005-2021, as well as onshore and offshore oil & gas development wells drilled. This analysis is based on a thorough project-by-project review of upcoming field developments and a conservative assessment of the timing of activity.”
Research Director and Editor, Steve Robertson, further commented, “Iran’s oil & gas sector has been heavily impacted by the introduction and tightening of international sanctions in recent years, and the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) represents a significant step forward in terms of normalising the country’s relations with the global community.
“Amongst the projects listed to be auctioned are the North Pars, Golshan and Ferdowsi gas field developments. A number of international oil companies (IOCs), including BP, Shell and ENI, have already expressed interest in re-entering the market. For Iran, securing international investment will be important not only in enabling key upstream development projects to go ahead, but also in ensuring the repair and modernisation of the country’s downstream sector.
“Success in securing the necessary investment will depend upon Iran’s compliance with the terms of the JCPOA. The implementation of some of these provisions, such as the removal of excess centrifuges and infrastructure, may take several months. Due to these limitations, Iran is unlikely to be able to implement the measures required to lift sanctions until the end of 2015 or early 2016.”
