Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker 2022
Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
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Westwood’s full-year 2022 subsea tree unit awards closed at approximately 294 units globally, representing a 79% increase year-on-year. 2Q 2022 had the highest order intake, accounting for over 30%, driven by subsea tree awards for ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development offshore Guyana. Activities in 4Q 2022 were driven by the sanctioning of Aker BP’s Yggdrasil (formerly NOAKA), Valhall PWP-Fenris and Skarv Satellite projects offshore Norway ahead of the expiration of the Norwegian temporary tax incentive. Project delays such as Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Equinor’s Wisting development (Norway) significantly impacted subsea tree order intake. Westwood’s full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at 1,560 units, representing a marginal decrease of 2% compared to the previous forecast.
Updated – 5th December, 2022
Brazil: Shell formally delayed the sanctioning of its Gato do Mato development offshore Brazil after it informed the BW Offshore and Saipem consortium that it was terminating the limited notice to proceed with the supply of the FPSO to be installed on the project. This led to a 10-unit downward revision to 4Q 2022 planned subsea tree awards.
Norway: Equinor announced it had postponed a final investment decision (FID) for its Wisting development offshore Norway, initially planned for December 2022. The operator cited global inflation and uncertainties around the execution capacity in the supplier market as a result of the war in Ukraine. This field development concept includes up to 36 subsea trees, with FID now targeted for 2026.
Trinidad & Tobago: Subsea 7 announced a contract award to Subsea Integration Alliance for BP’s Cypre gas development offshore Trinidad and Tobago. OneSubsea will be responsible for the subsea production systems, which include seven subsea trees. First gas is scheduled for 2025.
- Project delays such as Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Equinor’s Wisting development offshore Norway have significantly impacted subsea tree order intake in 4Q 2022, with announced project delays in the last 30 days accounting for a downward revision of 46 subsea tree units previously expected to be sanctioned in December 2022. Only seven subsea tree unit awards were announced in November 2022, related to BP’s Cypre gas field offshore Trinidad & Tobago.
- Westwood anticipates that 2022 subsea tree order intake will close at approximately 250 units. Key contracts anticipated for December 2022 is for Aker BP’s North of Alvheim Krafla Askja (NOAKA) project, with the operator expected to submit plans for development and operation (PDO) by mid-December. The Aker BP Subsea Alliance is expected to be formally awarded the subsea production system (SPS) contract following the submission of PDO.
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,560 units, a marginal decrease of 2% compared to last month’s forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 5th November, 2022
Brazil: Aker Solutions announced it signed a fixed five-year period with Petrobras to provide subsea production systems (SPS) and subsea lifecycle services (SLS) for Petrobras-operated oil and gas fields offshore Brazil. Aker further estimated that up to 33 subsea trees could be called off over the lifetime of the frame agreement. However, the estimate doesn’t represent the minimum or maximum amount, with the first significant call-off anticipated in 4Q 2022.
USA: Kosmos Energy confirmed that the field development plan (FDP) for the first phase of the Beacon Offshore Energy-operated Winterfell project was signed in September 2022. Kosmos had previously stated in 2Q 2022 that long lead items, including five subsea trees, have been ordered. However, the host facility production handling agreement and midstream export agreement remain pending.
- At the end of October 2022, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date closed at 215 units. This represents a 51% increase compared to 2021. An additional 81 subsea tree units are anticipated to be awarded before the end of 2022, with 31 units classified as “Firm”, 47 units as “Probable”, and three units as “Possible”.
- Key contracts to watch for the remainder of 4Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil), Petrobras’ SEAP project (Brazil), as well as Equinor’s Wisting development (Norway). However, despite Equinor’s commitment to take a final investment decision (FID) on its Wisting project at the end of 2022, the EPC awards timeline could be delayed beyond 2022.
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,590 units, a marginal decrease of 2% compared to last month’s forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 4th October, 2022
Trinidad & Tobago : BP has sanctioned its Cypre development offshore Trinidad and Tobago as a subsea tieback to its Juniper field, following a change in development concept. Seven subsea trees will be required for the development, with drilling scheduled to commence in 2023.
Malaysia: Shell announced a final investment decision (FID) for the phase four development of its Gumusut-Kakap-Geronggong-Jagus East (GKGJE) project offshore Malaysia. The field development concept includes a four-well subsea tieback to the Gumusut-Kakap floating production, semi-submersible (FPSS) unit. First oil is expected in 2H 2024.
- 3Q 2022 subsea tree order intake closed at 38 units, bringing recorded tree awards year to date closed at 183 units. However, announced subsea tree awards for BP’s Cypre development (Trinidad and Tobago) and Shell’s Geronggong development (Malaysia) is imminent, following a final investment decision (FID) on these projects during the period under review.
- In 4Q 2022, subsea tree awards will be dominated by activities offshore Norway, with Equinor’s Wisting development expected to account for 36 subsea tree units, whilst Aker BP’s NOA Fulla project will account for an additional 20 units. Other major awards anticipated before the end of 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and additional tree award for Petrobras’ Buzios development offshore Brazil.
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,560 units, a marginal decrease of 1% compared to last month’s forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th September, 2022
Guyana: ExxonMobil has opted to include its Snoek discovery in its Uaru-Mako development, which is expected to be sanctioned in 2023. The development plan for the Uaru-Mako project called for between 40-76 development wells. Hence, the inclusion of Snoek could increase subsea tree demand for the project.
Norway: On 11 August 2022, Aker Solutions announced it has been awarded a contract from Aker BP for the Trell & Trine development offshore Norway. The work scope comprises three horizontal subsea trees, two manifolds, control systems, approximately 30 km of subsea umbilicals, and associated equipment and installation work.
- At the end of August 2022, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date closed at 160 units. Major awards since the start of 2Q include Beacon Offshore’s Winterfell Phase I (USA), Aker BP’s Trell & Trine (Norway) and TotalEnergies’ Begonia (Angola). An additional 122 units could be awarded before the end of 2022, with Norway accounting for 50% of the anticipated subsea tree award.
- Westwood still anticipates the subsea tree award for Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) in 3Q 2022. However, the tree award for BW Energy’s Maromba Phase 1 (Brazil) could be delayed beyond 2022, given environmental approval by IBAMA is still pending, whilst a final investment decision (FID) is subject to the completion of project financing activities.
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,580 units. This represents a marginal 2% increase compared to last month’s forecast, predominantly driven by planned infill drilling at TotalEnergies’ Akpo and Egina fields offshore Nigeria.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th August, 2022
Angola: TotalEnergies has taken a final investment decision (FID) on its Begonia oil field in block 17/06. The field will be developed as a five-well subsea tieback to the nearby Pazflor FPSO, with first oil scheduled for 4Q 2024.
Norway: In its 2Q 2022 report, Aker BP stated that it has a final investment decision (FID) on its Trell and Trine, and the plan for development and operation (PDO) submission is planned for 3Q 2022. Westwood anticipates the field will be developed via three subsea trees tied back to the Alvheim development.
- At the end of July 2022, subsea tree units awards recorded year to date closed at 158 units. This represents 60% of the forecast subsea tree award for 2022, of which an additional four units have been pre-ordered, 36 units classified as “Firm”, 57 units as “Probable”, and ten units as “Possible”.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and BW Energy’s Maromba Phase 1 (Brazil). However, the previously anticipated award for Woodside Energy’s Trion (Mexico) has now been delayed until 2023. Woodside further stated that front-end engineering and design (FEED) activities are continuing, focusing on optimising the development and execution plan, cost, and development schedule.
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,550 units. This represents an upward revision of 10 units, following BP’s decision to reactive development plans for the Palas, Astrea and Juno (PAJ) oil fields in Block 31 offshore Angola. The PAJ development will now be operated by the newly formed Azule Energy, the 50/50 joint venture (JV) between BP and ENI, which combined the two companies’ Angolan business.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 5th July, 2022
Angola: On 16 June 2022, TechnipFMC confirmed a contract award to supply subsea production systems for TotalEnergies’ CLOV phase 3 development. The work scope includes subsea trees and associated controls, umbilical termination assemblies, jumpers and services. This award follows a frame agreement announced in April 2022, covering subsea trees for brownfield developments in Block 17 offshore Angola.
Brazil: TechnipFMC announced it had signed a letter of intent (LoI) with Equinor for an integrated front-end engineering and design (iFEED) study on its BM-C-33 development offshore Brazil. The FEED study includes an option to proceed with a direct award to TechnipFMC for the project’s integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) work scope, with a final investment decision anticipated in 1H 2023.
- In June 2022, only the CLOV phase 3 subsea tree contract was announced, which involves up to five subsea trees. This brings the total subsea tree unit award count for 1H 2022 to 123 units, a 42% decline compared to our January 2022 outlook. This decline is due to delays in project sanctioning, as some operators remodel project economics due to supply chain inflationary pressures. Projects delayed include Equinor’s Rosebank (UK) and TotalEnergies’ Cameia-Golfinho (Angola), whilst Aker Energy’s Pecan project (Ghana) was shelved indefinitely due to concerns over possible future Western sanctions against Lukoil, who holds a 38% stake in the field.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 3Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil), BW Energy’s Maromba Phase 1 (Brazil), as well as Woodside Energy’s Trion (Mexico).
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,540 units. However, subsea trees expected to be awarded for Shell’s Linnorm field offshore Norway has been excluded from the forecast, as the operator is now re-evaluating alternative development plans after it decided against a standalone development for the gas field.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th June, 2022
UK: In its 1Q 2022 report published on 3 May 2022, Aker Solutions announced an award from Equinor for the front-end engineering and design (FEED) work scope for the subsea production system (SPS) and umbilicals for its Rosebank development offshore UK.
Norway: Aker Solutions awarded the contract to supply the subsea production systems, including five subsea templates and seven vertical subsea trees for Equinor’s Haltenbanken East subsea development offshore Norway.
USA: Chevron announced it had taken a final investment decision (FID) on its Ballymore field located in the Mississippi Canyon 607 block in the US GoM. The field will be developed via three production wells tied back to the Blind Faith floating production platform.
- In May 2022, only seven subsea tree units were recorded, driven by Equinor’s Haltenbanken East (Halten East) subsea development offshore Norway. This brings the 2022 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 112 units, a 72% increase year on year.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2H 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil), Equinor’s NOA Fulla and Wisting projects offshore Norway, as well as Woodside Energy’s Trion (Mexico). However, the latter could be delayed due to the recently completed merger of BHP’s oil and gas portfolio with Woodside.
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,540 units, a 1% marginal increase compared to last month’s forecast, given Shell’s intention to launch an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) tender to accelerate the development timeline of its Bonga North project offshore Nigeria.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th May, 2022
Angola: In its 1Q 2022 report, TechnipFMC announced it had secured a frame agreement from TotalEnergies to supply subsea production systems (SPS) for brownfield developments in Block 17 offshore Angola. In view of this, TechnipFMC is expected to supply the subsea trees for TotalEnergies’ CLOV Phase 3 development.
Norway: TechnipFMC announced an integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) contract award for Wintershall Dea Norge AS-operated Maria revitalization project.
Brazil: PetroRio has received approval from IBAMA to drill new wells at the Frade field. The drilling campaign will involve three wells (one production and two injection), followed by a drilling campaign on the Wahoo field.
- In April 2022, 54 subsea tree units were recorded, driven by TechnipFMC’s confirmation that it received notice to proceed from ExxonMobil for the Yellowtail development, which involves the supply of 51 subsea trees, as well as an iEPCI contract award for Wintershall’s Maria revitalization project offshore Norway.
- Westwood has revised its 1Q 2022 subsea tree award to 51 units, driven by the award of long-lead items for PetroRio’s activities offshore Brazil and the commencement of planned infill drilling activity in the US GoM. Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards for the remainder of 2Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Chevron’s Ballymore (USA).
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,525 units, a 2% increase compared to last month’s forecast, given an increase in expected subsea tree demand for Exxon’s Uaru development offshore Guyana, which calls for between 40 and 76 development wells.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th April, 2022
Brazil: Enauta awarded OneSubsea the contract to supply the subsea production system for its Atlanta field. The field will host a total of eight subsea wells throughout as part of the ‘definitive subsea production system’ at the Atlanta field, of which OneSubsea had previously supplied four units for the initial production phase at the field.
Guyana: Hess Corporation, a 30% stakeholder in ExxonMobil-operated Yellowtail development has announced it has taken a final investment decision (FID) after obtaining regulatory approval to commence construction and operation on the Yellowtail development. The FID automatically confirms the contract awarded to TechnipFMC in November 2021 for the supply of 51 enhanced vertical deepwater trees (EVDT) and associated tooling, 12 subsea manifolds, associated controls and tie-in equipment.
Suriname: Following the announcement of the Krabdagu discovery in Block 58 in February 2022, TotalEnergies and block partner Apache have opted to prioritise the appraisal of existing Block 58 discoveries alongside further exploration ahead of previously stated development plans within the block. Given this, Westwood has amended the timeline for subsea tree contract award for projects offshore Suriname, with development programmes not anticipated to commence until 2024.
- 1Q 2022 subsea tree order intake closed at 19 units. However, 2Q 2022 got up to a fast start with 51 subsea tree awards confirmed for ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development following governmental approval and a final investment decision on the project. This brings the 2022 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 70 units, 27% of full-year anticipated awards.
- Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) which was previously expected to be awarded in 1Q 2021, Chevron’s Ballymore (USA) and TotalEnergies’ Lapa South-West (Brazil).
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,490 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th April, 2022
Brazil: Enauta awarded OneSubsea the contract to supply the subsea production system for its Atlanta field. The field will host a total of eight subsea wells throughout as part of the ‘definitive subsea production system’ at the Atlanta field, of which OneSubsea had previously supplied four units for the initial production phase at the field.
Guyana: Hess Corporation, a 30% stakeholder in ExxonMobil-operated Yellowtail development has announced it has taken a final investment decision (FID) after obtaining regulatory approval to commence construction and operation on the Yellowtail development. The FID automatically confirms the contract awarded to TechnipFMC in November 2021 for the supply of 51 enhanced vertical deepwater trees (EVDT) and associated tooling, 12 subsea manifolds, associated controls and tie-in equipment.
Suriname: Following the announcement of the Krabdagu discovery in Block 58 in February 2022, TotalEnergies and block partner Apache have opted to prioritise the appraisal of existing Block 58 discoveries alongside further exploration ahead of previously stated development plans within the block. Given this, Westwood has amended the timeline for subsea tree contract award for projects offshore Suriname, with development programmes not anticipated to commence until 2024.
- 1Q 2022 subsea tree order intake closed at 19 units. However, 2Q 2022 got up to a fast start with 51 subsea tree awards confirmed for ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development following governmental approval and a final investment decision on the project. This brings the 2022 subsea tree unit award count YTD to 70 units, 27% of full-year anticipated awards.
- Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2022 include Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) which was previously expected to be awarded in 1Q 2021, Chevron’s Ballymore (USA) and TotalEnergies’ Lapa South-West (Brazil).
- Our full-year 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,490 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th March, 2022
Ivory Coast: ENI announced it has taken a final investment decision (FID) on the fast-track development of an early production system (EPS) on its Baleine field five months after discovery. ENI’s development concept for the EPS includes three subsea trees connected to a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit.
USA: TotalEnergies has announced it will not be taking a final investment decision (FID) on the ultra high-pressure North Platte project, leading to a downward revision of eight subsea tree units expected to be awarded in 2022 . TotalEnergies further stated that it will be relinquishing its 60% stake in the field with immediate effect. However, field partner Equnior who owns the remaining 40% has expressed its commitment to developing the North Platte project.
- In February, subsea tree order intake was subdued, with only four units recorded, accounting for the subsea tree awarded year to date. However, Westwood has classified 65 units with the “Pre-Order” status, driven by CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), Exxon’s Yellowtail development offshore Guyana and Chariot’s Anchois offshore Morocco.
- Major projects to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2021 include Shell’s Gato do Mato, Enauta’s Atlanta field and the formal subsea tree award for CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1.
- Our full-year, 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,475 units, a marginal increase of less than 1% compared to last month’s forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th February, 2022
China: CNOOC is said to be planning a tender for subsea production systems (SPS) to develop its Qinhuangdao (QHD) 29-2 field located in Bohai Bay offshore China. The work scope reportedly involves over 70 subsea trees and 10 subsea manifolds. However, the overall development plan is yet to be approved. Hence, the total number of subsea trees in the final development plan may change.
Nigeria: Shell is set to delay the sanctioning of its Bonga South-West Aparo development offshore Nigeria until at least 2025. However, the industry sources suggest that Shell might launch a new tender process for the subsea equipment and floating production system in 2023 so as to meet the new development timeline.
- No subsea tree awards were announced in January 2022. However, Industry sources have identified Baker Hughes as the preferred bidder to supply the required subsea trees for CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 development.
- Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 include Shell’s Gato do Mato, Enauta’s Atlanta field, TotalEnergies’ North Platte development (USA) and its Lapa South West project (Brazil).
- Our full-year, 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,465 units, a 6% increase compared to last month’s forecast. This uptick is driven predominantly by CNOOC’s development plan for its shallow water Qinhuangdao (QHD) 29-2 field located in Bohai Bay offshore China.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
Updated – 4th January, 2022
Brazil: The submission of subsea engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) bids for PetroRio’s Frade Revitalisation and Wahoo fields are now expected in 1Q 2022. PetroRio awarded multiple service contracts for the project in 3Q 2021 but postponed the subsea EPCI award.
China: CNOOC is expected to announce the winning bid in a matter of weeks for the Lingshui 25-1 subsea production system (SPS) contract. Industry sources state that Baker Hughes has emerged as the front runner after it submitted the lowest commercial bid.
- No subsea tree awards were announced in December 2021. However, Westwood revised the number of subsea trees recorded for November by three units, consequently decreasing 2021 total subsea tree award to 173 units, a 9% decline year-on-year.
- Westwood’s current subsea tree demand outlook for 2022 is forecast to total up to 354 units, the highest since 2013 based on $65/bbl Brent. Of these, 173 units (49%) are classified as “Firm”, 125 units (35%) as “Probable”, and 56 units (16%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors. Included in the tree awards anticipated in 2022 are 53 units (15%) that have already been awarded but are subject to governmental approvals and a final investment decision on the respective fields.
- Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 include CNOOC’s Lingshui 25-1 (China), TotalEnergies’ North Platte development (USA) and its Lapa South West project (Brazil).
- Our full-year, 2022-2026 subsea tree demand outlook is currently at 1,380 units, a 25% increase compared to the 2017-2021 period. Latin America is forecast to account for approximately 36%, driven by Petrobras’ continued investment in its pre-salt basin and ExxonMobil’s Stabroek developments.
Mark Adeosun
Lead Analyst, Subsea
[email protected]
