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Global Subsea Tree Tracker

By November 6, 2024November 8th, 2024No Comments

Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker

Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.

View 2023 Data

Updated – 6th November, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker November 2024
USA: TechnipFMC announced an integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (iEPCI) contract award by BP for its Kaskida development. The contract includes six 20K standardized subsea trees.
Myanmar: Posco International sanctioned its Shwe – Phase IV development in 3Q 2024, with the requirement to drill four subsea wells. Production is scheduled to commence in 2027.
India: ONGC has sanctioned its long-delayed infill programme at its G1/GS15 project in the Godavari Basin. The infill programme includes two additional wells, G-1-9 Sub and G-1-15, tied into existing infrastructure.
Norway: Var Energi announced FID for its Balder Phase V project in the Norwegian North Sea. The project will involve drilling up to six infill subsea wells using all the remaining available template well slots in the existing Balder subsea facilities. The subsea tree award is yet to be confirmed.

  • ​At the end of October 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 182 units, representing a 34% YoY decline, as supply chain inflationary pressures continue to impact the FID timeline for several projects. The Americas accounts for 64% of units awarded, whilst sanctioning activity in Western Europe has supported 21% of subsea tree order intake in 2024. An additional 85 subsea tree unit awards are anticipated for the remainder of 2024, 38 of these classified as “Pre-Order”, underpinned by TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu Block 58 development offshore Suriname and the Northern Endurance Partnership CCS project in the UK Southern North Sea. ​

  • Other key subsea tree contracts to be awarded for the remainder of 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North project offshore Nigeria, Eni’s Coral North development (Mozambique), and Var Energi’s Balder Phase V project (Norway), with associated subsea trees classified as “Firm”.​

  • Our visible base-case 2024-28 subsea tree demand outlook is estimated at 1,450 units, a marginal increase of 2% compared to last month’s estimate. This is driven by infill drilling recently announced, such as Var Energi’s Balder Phase VI (Norway), with subsea tree demand to average 290 units annually over the forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 4th October, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker October 2024
Suriname: TotalEnergies announced a final investment decision for its GranMorgu Block 58 development offshore Suriname. The project will develop the Sapakara and Krabdagu oil discoveries and will require a total investment of approximately US$10.5 billion, with first oil scheduled for 2028. The subsea tree contract award for the project is pending.
Brazil: TechnipFMC was awarded a contract to supply 19 subsea trees to be installed across Petrobras’ Santos and Campos basins offshore Brazil.
Nigeria: ExxonMobil is reportedly progressing with its plans to develop the Owowo, Usan East and Erha North – Phase III project offshore Nigeria. The work scope could involve up to 40 subsea trees across the three fields, with a final investment decision anticipated in 2H 2025.
  • At the end of September 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 150 units. Westwood forecasts an additional 128 subsea tree unit awards for the remainder of 2024, with firm awards expected in October driven by BP’s Kaskida project in the US GoM and TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu Block 58 development offshore Suriname following FID announcements in July and October 2024, respectively.
  • Other key subsea tree contracts to be confirmed or awarded for the remainder of 2024 are forecast to be driven by Shell’s Bonga North project offshore Nigeria, ENI’s Coral North development (Mozambique), Posco international’s Shwe – Phase IV (Myanmar), Pecan Energies’ Pecan development (Ghana) and callouts from Petrobras’ subsea tree global frame agreement.
  • Our visible base-case 2024-28 subsea tree demand outlook remains relatively unchanged at approximately 1,425 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s estimates, averaging 285 units annually over the forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th September, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker September 2024
Suriname: TotalEnergies confirmed that 32 subsea trees (16 producers, 13 water alternating gas (WAG), one water injection and two gas injection wells) will be required to develop its Krabdagu and Sapakara South fields. Development drilling is scheduled to commence in 4Q 2026, utilising two drilling rigs, with one of the rigs to come off-site by 3Q 2029 and the second to remain offshore Suriname until 1Q 2030. 
USA: Talos Energy announced that the Ewing Bank 953 well (“EW 953 well”) successfully discovered commercial quantities of oil and natural gas. Talos stated that the current plan is for the well to be tied back to the South Timbalier 311 Megalodon platform, with first production expected in mid-2026.
Cyprus: Chevron submitted an updated development plan for the Aphrodite gas field, with initial production planned through four subsea production wells connected to a floating production unit.
Brazil: BW Energy has delayed the infill drilling campaign at its Golfinho project, citing subsea equipment and services cost inflation.
  • No subsea tree contract were announced in August 2024. However, Westwood forecast that total subsea tree demand for 2024 will reach 259 units, with 131 (51%) already awarded year-to-date.
  • Looking ahead, Westwood anticipates an additional 128 subsea tree units to be awarded by the end of 2024. Of these, 80 units (63%) are classified as “Firm,” underpinned by projects such as TotalEnergies’ Block 58 development offshore Suriname, ENI’s Coral North project (Mozambique), BP’s Kaskida project in the US Gulf of Mexico (following a final investment decision announced in July), and Shell’s Bonga North project offshore Nigeria. Additionally, six units associated with the Northern Endurance Partnership’s East Coast Cluster CCS project in the UK Southern North Sea have been issued a letter of intent (LoI), with TechnipFMC set to supply the equipment pending final investment decision and regulatory approval, expected by the end of 2024.
  • Our visible base-case 2024-28 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,415 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s estimates.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th August, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker August 2024
​US: BP announced a final investment decision for its HTHP Kaskida development.
Brazil: Petrobras initiated a tender for the supply of up to 82 subsea trees to be installed at up to 10 developments in the Campos and Santos Basins. The tender is split into two lots, with Lot 1 featuring 50 subsea trees and Lot 2 the remaining 32 subsea trees. The contract on offer is reportedly for a period of five years.
Brazil: OneSubsea announced a contract award to supply Petrobras’ standardized pre-salt vertical trees, subsea distribution units, subsea control systems and pipeline systems for the Atapu phase II and Sepia phase II development.
Israel: TechnipFMC was awarded the iEPCI contract for Energean’s Katlan development. The contract scope includes the design, manufacture, and installation of the production systems, which include two subsea trees, line pipes, umbilicals, and subsea structures, with the award recorded in TechnipFMC’s 2Q order intake.

  • At the end of July 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 130 units. Westwood forecasts an additional 127 subsea tree unit awards for the remainder of 2024. Only six units have been issued a letter of intent and are associated with the Northern Endurance Partnership’s East Coast Cluster CCS project in the UK Southern NorthSea, 93 units are classified as “Firm”, 19 units as “Probable”, and nine units as “Possible”.​

  • Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 3Q 2024 include the award confirmation for BP’s Kaskida development in the US GoM, following the recently announced final investment decision (FID) and Posco’s Shwe – Phase IV Development Offshore Myanmar. Projects such as TotalEnergies’ Block 58 project (Suriname) and callouts from Petrobras’ subsea tree global frame agreement will support subsea tree order intake for the remainder of 2024.

  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,400 units, a 3% decline compared to last month’s estimates. CNOOC is forecast to account for 106 units (8%) of forecast demand, a five-fold increase compared to the preceding 5-year period, driven by tree demand for three deepwater fields in the South China Sea.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th July, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker July 2024
Norway: OneSubsea was awarded a front-end engineering design (FEED) contract for an all-electric subsea production system (SPS) for Equinor’s FramSor project. Should Equinor reach a final investment decision on the project, the future engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) work scope will be awarded directly to OneSubsea.
Angola: Following the final investment decision announced in May 2024, OneSubsea secured the contract to supply the subsea production system for TotalEnergies’ Kaminho project.
Brazil: Petrobras and its project partners announced a final investment decision for the Atapu Phase II and Sepia Phase II development, with production scheduled to commence in 2029.
Egypt: Following the decision to sanction the West Delta Deep Marine Phase XI in April 2024, Westwood understands that the associated subsea trees required for the project were awarded during the period under review.

  • Subsea tree unit awards recorded in 2Q closed at 83 units, bringing the year-to-date count to 109 units. This is a net downward revision of two units, compared to last month’s total unit count, given the lower-than-projected subsea tree unit call-out for Petrobras’ pre-salt fields in 2Q 2024. An additional 148 subsea tree unit awards are anticipated for the remainder of 2024.​

  • Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 3Q 2024 include the award confirmation for Petrobras’ Atapu Phase II and Sepia Phase II development in the Santos Basin offshore Brazil, following the recent final investment decision (FID) announcement. Energean’s Katlan development (Israel) and BP’s Kaskida development in the US GoM are key awards expected during the quarter.​

  • Our visible base-case 2024-28 subsea tree demand outlook remains unchanged at approximately 1,445 units.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th June, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker June 2024
Norway: OneSubsea confirmed it was awarded an integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation contract by OKEA for the Bestla development. OneSubsea will deliver the subsea production system (SPS), while Subsea 7 will install the SPS, design, and flowline systems.
Angola: On 21st May 2024, TotalEnergies announced a final investment decision for its Kaminho project. Field start-up is expected in 2028, with peak production expected to reach 70 kbpd of oil. 
Brazil: Petrobras and its project partners announced a final investment decision for the Atapu Phase II and Sepia Phase II development, with production scheduled to commence in 2029.
  • At the end of May 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 111 units. Westwood forecasts an additional 161 subsea tree unit awards for the remainder of 2024, of which 35 units have been issued a letter of intent, 88 units classified as “Firm”, 22 units as “Probable”, and 16 units as “Possible”.
  • Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2024 include the award confirmation for TotalEnergies’ Kaminho project offshore Angola and its Block 58 development offshore Suriname, Shell’s Bonga North (Nigeria), Energean’s Katlan development (Israel), for which the operator confirmed the order of long-lead items to maintain the project schedule ahead of a final investment decision (FID) and BP’s Kaskida development in the US GoM.
  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,445 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s estimates. Given its planned continued investment offshore Guyana and offshore Nigeria, ExxonMobil leads the subsea tree demand by E&Ps over the forecast.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th May, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker May 2024
Guyana: On 15th April 2024, TechnipFMC confirmed the award to supply 48 subsea trees and associated tooling, as well as 12 manifolds and associated controls and tie-in equipment for ExxonMobil’s Whiptail development, following the announcement of a final investment decision by the operator.
UK: Serica Energy announced it had sanctioned its Belinda development but awaits regulatory approval from the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) for the field development plan. The field will be developed via a single subsea tree tied back to the Triton FPSO.
USA: Woodside Energy confirmed that FID was taken on the next expansion phase of the BP-operated Atlantis field. The project, dubbed the Atlantis Drill Centre 1 Expansion (DC1X), is a two-well subsea tieback to the Atlantis facility through the existing DC1 manifold southwest of the Atlantis field.
Australia: Woodside Energy indicated that FID was taken at its Xena-3 field in 1Q 2023.
  • At the end of April 2024, subsea tree unit awards recorded year-to-date closed at 110 units. Major tree awards recorded since last month’s update include the 48 subsea trees awarded to TechnipFMC for Exxon’s Whiptail project offshore Guyana, tree awards for the infill drilling campaign at Equinor’s Troll development and infill drilling of production and water injection wells by ConocoPhillips offshore Norway.
  • Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 2Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel) and ENI’s Maha and Merakes East offshore Indonesia and TotalEnergies’ Kaminho field offshore Angola.
  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,430 units, a marginal increase of 1% compared to last month’s estimates.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th April, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker April 2024
Philippines: Malampaya Energy announced a contract award to OneSubsea a contract for the supply of wellheads, Christmas trees, control equipment and subsea production system for its Malampaya Phase IV development. The two-well subsea tieback development is expected to deliver first gas by 2026.
UK: TechnipFMC confirmed it had been selected for an integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (iEPCI) contract for the Northern Endurance Partnership’s East Coast Cluster carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. TechnipFMC will supply and install an all-electrical subsea system, with a formal contract award anticipated in late 2024 following a final investment decision (FID) and the project receiving regulatory clearances.
USA: In its operational update published on 2 April 2024, LLOG stated it plans to drill and complete multiple subsea wells at its Buckskin field, Leon and Castile fields, all located in the Keathley Canyon area in the US GoM.

  • 1Q 2024 subsea tree award announced closed at 13 units, a 28% decline QoQ. Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, ExxonMobil’s Whiptail development (Guyana), TotalEnergies’ Kaminho (Angola) and subsea tree demand for additional drilling campaign at Equinor’s Troll development offshore Norway. ​

  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,410 units, a marginal increase of less than 1% compared to last month’s estimates. 

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th March, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker March 2024
Mexico: Repsol has revised its development timeline for its Chinwol and Polok fields, with FID now planned for 2025 and first oil anticipated in 2028.
US: TechnipFMC announced an iEPCI contract award for Shell’s Sparta development. TechnipFMC will manufacture and install the subsea production systems, umbilicals, risers, and flowlines.
  • At the end of February, subsea tree unit awards recorded year to date was 11 units, a 74% decline y-o-y, as E&Ps defer the sanctioning of major projects due to supply chain inflationary pressures. Given this, Westwood now forecasts 2024 subsea tree demand to total just over 260 units, a 9% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast.
  • Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel) and BP’s Atlantis Phase IV in the US GoM.
  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at approximately 1,400 units, averaging approximately 280 units a year.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 6th February, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker February 2024
Australia: In its 4Q 2023 report published on 24 January 2024, Woodside Energy stated that the North West Shelf (NWS) project participants had taken a final investment decision (FID) on the Lambert West project.
UK: Shell announced it had taken a final investment decision (FID) on the Victory gas field. The development will feature a single subsea well tieback to the existing Greater Laggan Area system infrastructure via a new 16km pipeline. 
US: BP sanctioned its three-well subsea tieback Mad Dog SouthWest Extension project.
  • No subsea tree contract award was announced in January 2024. However, Westwood now forecasts 2024 subsea tree demand to total 290 units, a 4% downward revision compared to last month’s forecast.
  • Key upcoming subsea tree contract awards to watch in 1Q 2024 include Shell’s Bonga North offshore Nigeria, Energean’s Katlan development (Israel), Eni’s Merakes East (Indonesia) and Petrobras’ Atapu II and Sepia II development offshore Brazil.
  • Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2024-28 period is forecast at 1,440 units, averaging approximately 288 units a year.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

Updated – 8th January, 2024

Subsea Tree Tracker January 2024
US: On 19 December 2023, Shell announced a final investment decision (FID) on its Sparta deepwater development. The field is expected to reach peak production of approximately 90kboepd, with first production expected in 2028.
US: Shell sanctioned a phased drilling campaign at its Great White development, comprising three new subsea wells. The wells are expected to be completed in April 2025 and will produce 22kboepd at peak.
Australia: Baker Hughes announced a 20-year framework agreement to supply its Aptara subsea production systems for Chevron Australia’s future offshore developments. The subsea production system includes subsea trees, wellheads and control systems.
  • 4Q 2023 subsea tree award recorded closed at 18 units, the lowest recorded in a quarter since 2Q 2016. This brings 2023 total subsea tree orders to close at 280 units, an 8% year-on-year decline.
  • Westwood’s 2024 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast to total approximately 300 units, the second highest since 2013, only behind awards recorded in 2022, based on a $75-$85/bbl Brent oil price. Of these, 208 units (69%) are classified as “Firm”, 67 units (22%) as “Probable”, and 26 units (9%) classified as “Possible” based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors.
  • Our full-year 2024-2028 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast at approximately 1,500 units, a 25% increase compared to the 2019-2023 period. ExxonMobil and Petrobras will account for a third of forecast demand, driven by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek developments and the Brazilian NOC’s continued investment in its pre-salt basin.

Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]

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