Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker
Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
View 2024 Data
Updated – 6th April, 2025
Norway: Equinor and its project partners announced a final investment decision (FID) for the second phase of its Northern Lights Carbon Storage (CS) project. The total project investment for phase II is estimated at US$711 million and will require at least two subsea trees for the necessary injection wells.
Trinidad & Tobago: BP announced that a final investment decision (FID) was made for its Ginger gas field. The field will utilise four development wells, tied back to the Mahogany B fixed platform. First gas is scheduled for 2027.
Brazil: Following Shell’s announcement that it has taken a final investment decision (FID) on its Gato do Mato field in the Santos Basin, TechnipFMC announced it was awarded the subsea integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) work scope for the field.
Norway: TechnipFMC was awarded the subsea integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) work scope for Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup Phase III development in the Norwegian North Sea.
- Subsea tree unit award recorded in 1Q 2025 closed at 32 units, a 65% decline QoQ, as macro headwinds and supply chain inflationary pressures continue to weigh on project sanctioning and contract award timeline. TechnipFMC dominated announced awards during the period under review, with integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation (iEPCI) award for Shell’s Gat do Mato offshore Brazil and Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup Phase III development in the Norwegian North Sea.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch in 2Q 2025 include ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, with LNTP already issued to key contractors, Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique), Equinor’s Fram Sor and the Heidrun expansion project (Norway)
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,400 units, averaging 280 units per year. Tree demand will be driven by activities offshore Brazil, Guyana and Norway, whilst CNOOC’s ambition to develop its Baodao 12-1 and future expansion at its Lingshui and Liuhua fields could support demand in the latter years of the forecast.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th March, 2025
Australia: ExxonMobil and its field partners have approved approximately US$200 million investment in the Kipper 1B project. The project will require a single subsea well tied back to the West Tuna platform.
China: Industry sources have reported that a front-runner has emerged to supply CNOOC subsea production systems (SPS) for its Liuhua 28-2 and Liuhua 27-1 oilfields in the South China Sea.
Guyana: ExxonMobil has filed the environmental impact assessment for the Hammerhead development offshore Guyana, with a scheduled production start date of 2029. The project will require at least 30 subsea trees across four drill centres connected to a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit.
Azerbaijan: TotalEnergies has commenced the front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for the second phase of the Absheron development, with the objective of reaching readiness for the final investment decision (FID) in 2026.
- Subsea tree contract award announced remains subdued, with only five units recorded year-to-date. Furthermore, there has been a 7% downward revision to Westwood’s 2025 subsea tree demand outlook, totalling 265 units as E&Ps continue to prioritise their Capex distribution, with several final investment decision (FID) ready projects being optimised in the face of high supply chain cost. Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2025 include Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique), Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup phase III project in the Norwegian North Sea.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2025-29 period is forecast at c.1,385 units, a marginal 1% decline compared to last month’s outlook.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th February, 2025
Norway: OneSubsea announced it had been awarded a sizeable subsea production systems (SPS) work scope to expedite field development projects for Vår Energi. The first package includes a complete SPS system, including four vertical subsea trees, wellheads, templates, manifolds, and other associated equipment.
Ivory Coast: Murphy Oil plans to submit a field development plan by 4Q 2025 for its Paon field. Murphy reportedly completed a seismic reprocessing survey in 4Q 2024 and plans to initiate a three-well exploration program in 4Q 2025.
Australia: Chevron plans to issue a request for information (RFI) in January 2025 for the drilling work scope for its Gorgon Stage 3 Drilling and Completion Campaign. The programme consists of six subsea wells across the Geryon and Eurytion (G&E) fields. Given a 20-year framework agreement between TechnipFMC and Chevron Australia announced in 2Q 2023, TechnipFMC is expected to supply the related subsea production equipment.
- No subsea tree contract award was announced in January 2024. However, in early February, OneSubsea announced a strategic subsea partnership agreement with Vår Energi for standardised subsea equipment for upcoming oil and gas developments in the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). OneSubsea confirmed that the first package includes a complete SPS system, including four vertical subsea trees.
- Key subsea tree contract awards to watch for the remainder of 1Q 2025 include Eni’s Coral Norte (Mozambique), Shell’s Gato do Mato (Brazil) and TotalEnergies’ Preowei development offshore Nigeria.
- Visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2025-29 period is forecast at c.1,395 units, averaging approximately 279 units a year.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
Updated – 6th Janaury, 2025
Nigeria: TechnipFMC confirmed the contract awarded to supply its Subsea 2.0® subsea production systems at Shell’s Bonga North project. The work scope covers the design and manufacture of subsea tree systems, manifolds, jumpers, controls and services.
UK: TechnipFMC has received the notice to proceed with the integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (iEPCI) work scope for the Northern Endurance Partnership CCS project, following the project’s final investment decision (FID) announced on 10 November 2024. TechnipFMC indicated that this award was included in its inbound orders.
USA: Beacon Offshore announced it had sanctioned the development of its Shenandoah Phase II in the US GoM. This project will involve the drilling and completion of two additional production wells. The operator also plans to sanction the Shenandoah South discovery in 2Q 2025 and will require two subsea wells.
USA: Shell announced a final investment decision (FID) to develop its Silvertip Ph.3 project via two subsea wells tied into existing infrastructure. Production is scheduled to commence in 2026.
- 4Q 2024 subsea tree award recorded closed at 70 units, representing an 11% quarter-on-quarter decline. This brings total subsea tree award in 2024 to close at 255 units, a 12% year-on-year decline.
- Westwood’s 2025 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast to total approximately 290 units, driven by activities offshore Brazil, Turkey, Norway, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast based on a $75-$85/bbl Brent oil price. Based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial, and geopolitical factors, we categorize the anticipated tree awards as follows: 174 units (60%) are classified as “Firm”, 76 units (26%) as “Probable”, and 30 units (10%) are classified as “Possible”, with 12 units already issued with a letter of intent (LoI), pending final investment decision.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,370 units, averaging 274 units per year, representing a 13% increase compared to the annual average over the 2020-2024 period. ExxonMobil and Petrobras will account for 29% of forecast demand, driven by activities in the Stabroek Basin and the Brazilian NOC’s continued investment in its pre-salt Basin.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
