Westwood’s Global Subsea Tree Tracker
Each month Westwood’s subsea team provides a global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from and analysed using, SubseaLogix. Bookmark this page for regular updates on the health of the subsea oil and gas sector.
View 2024 Data
Updated – 6th Janaury, 2025
Nigeria: TechnipFMC confirmed the contract awarded to supply its Subsea 2.0® subsea production systems at Shell’s Bonga North project. The work scope covers the design and manufacture of subsea tree systems, manifolds, jumpers, controls and services.
UK: TechnipFMC has received the notice to proceed with the integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation (iEPCI) work scope for the Northern Endurance Partnership CCS project, following the project’s final investment decision (FID) announced on 10 November 2024. TechnipFMC indicated that this award was included in its inbound orders.
USA: Beacon Offshore announced it had sanctioned the development of its Shenandoah Phase II in the US GoM. This project will involve the drilling and completion of two additional production wells. The operator also plans to sanction the Shenandoah South discovery in 2Q 2025 and will require two subsea wells.
USA: Shell announced a final investment decision (FID) to develop its Silvertip Ph.3 project via two subsea wells tied into existing infrastructure. Production is scheduled to commence in 2026.
- 4Q 2024 subsea tree award recorded closed at 70 units, representing an 11% quarter-on-quarter decline. This brings total subsea tree award in 2024 to close at 255 units, a 12% year-on-year decline.
- Westwood’s 2025 subsea tree demand outlook is forecast to total approximately 290 units, driven by activities offshore Brazil, Turkey, Norway, Nigeria and the Ivory Coast based on a $75-$85/bbl Brent oil price. Based on our assessment of subsurface, commercial, and geopolitical factors, we categorize the anticipated tree awards as follows: 174 units (60%) are classified as “Firm”, 76 units (26%) as “Probable”, and 30 units (10%) are classified as “Possible”, with 12 units already issued with a letter of intent (LoI), pending final investment decision.
- Our visible base-case demand outlook for subsea tree units from 2025 to 2029 is estimated at 1,370 units, averaging 274 units per year, representing a 13% increase compared to the annual average over the 2020-2024 period. ExxonMobil and Petrobras will account for 29% of forecast demand, driven by activities in the Stabroek Basin and the Brazilian NOC’s continued investment in its pre-salt Basin.
Mark Adeosun
Director, SubseaLogix
[email protected]
